Cecilville, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

066
FXUS66 KMFR 311732
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1032 AM PDT Sat May 31 2025

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

The coast will be under a marine layer which will result in MVFR
ceilings through early parts of this afternoon before improvements
occur. This means the coast will join inland sites for VFR
conditions through much of the day and early evening. Thereafter,
the coast will likely see another marine push overnight; however,
there is enough of an offshore component that may limit lower
ceilings overnight. At this time, confidence was high enough to
keep all terminals VFR overnight. Lastly, it will be breezy this
afternoon for all sites.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 526 AM PDT Sat May 31 2025/

DISCUSSION...Stable atmospheric conditions will continue to bring
warm temperatures through the day today. Temperatures west of the
Cascades look to decrease today, but will remain above 5 to 10
degrees above average. The Oregon coast is forecast to be in the
high 60s to low 70s, Roseburg looks to be in the low 80s, and
other west side valleys look to be in the mid to high 80s. East of
the Cascades, temperatures will remain 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are expected across
the east side today. Gusty afternoon and evening winds are
expected today, especially over higher terrain.

Please see the previous discussion for more details about the
short- and long-term forecast. -TAD

AVIATION...31/12Z TAFs...MVFR ceilings have settled over North Bend
this morning, with periods of lower visibility possible. This marine
layer looks to stay in place through most of the TAF period, with
lifting to VFR levels expected late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Gusty winds are expected to develop across the area this afternoon
before improving overnight. -TAD

MARINE....Updated 200 AM Saturday, May 31, 2025...Gusty northerly
winds will continue to build steep seas south on Coos Bay through
this afternoon. Winds look to substantially increase this
afternoon and evening, with very steep seas and gale gusts
forecast south of Coos Bay and steep seas building north of Coos
Bay. This setup looks to continue through Sunday and Monday.

Areas of gale gusts look to decrease past Monday, but steep to very
steep seas under gusty northerly winds could continue across area
waters through the rest of the week. -TAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 524 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025/

DISCUSSION...Today will end up being the hottest day of the
year for many locations, thus far, with the axis of an upper
level ridge passing east of the Cascades.

The upper ridge will continue to exert its influence into
Saturday, especially east of the Cascades, but will shift into the
Great Basin. Most of the East Side will get quite warm again
(highs in the upper 80s/low 90s). Meanwhile, a short wave
upstream will approach the PacNW coast and this will induce a
strengthening pressure gradient across SW Oregon/NorCal. Expect an
uptick in gusty winds (25-30 mph) Saturday afternoon/evening as a
mostly dry front moves closer. Heights will be lowering compared
to today, so west side temps should end up about 5-10 degrees F
lower than they are today. While there are a couple of HREF
members that show a few blips here and there, the air mass is
quite dry and measurable precipitation probabilities are, in most
cases, less than 5%. So, we`ll be maintaining dry conditions in
the official forecast through Saturday.

The front sweeps through Saturday night and this will bring deep-
layer N-NE winds that will set up area wide into Sunday. The
strongest winds will be focused in the SW Oregon/NW California
mountains (coast ranges/Siskiyous and, to a lesser degree, the
Cascades). Guidance continues to show a fairly high probability
(70%) of wind gusts reaching 40 mph over the higher terrain and a
low chance (10%) at peak gusts exceeding 50 mph. While we don`t
think an advisory is necessary, some valleys with flow oriented
NE-SW (Illinois) could have some stronger breezes come Sunday
afternoon (30-35 mph) when the upper trough moves through. It will
also be quite windy along the coast. The most noticeable change
will be the cooling over the East Side, where high temps will be
down 15-20 F compared to Saturday. However, with the flow offshore
over the west side in SW Oregon, it could be warmer near Brookings
(even at the beaches), with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. It
should be noted that a closed low is expected to form and move
southward along the NorCal coast Sunday, then toward the Bay Area
Sunday night. This will bring some mid-level moisture and
instability to portions of NorCal Sunday afternoon/evening. With a
front getting hung up in the northern Sierra, it might be able to
trigger an isolated thunderstorm or two in Lassen and perhaps as
far north as southern Modoc County. This is a low probability
(15-20% chance) event and most areas aren`t going to get anything
at all.

We`ll maintain a dry pattern into early next week with minor
disturbances pushing through at times. This should bring marine
pushes to the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco, and also
into portions of the Umpqua Basin along with enhanced breezy
conditions at times. But, no significant precipitation is
expected. With fire season beginning June 1st, and the dry weather
expected, fuels will continue to dry out. Currently, we do not
have any widespread initial attack concerns, but as we have seen
in the past couple of weeks, local grass fires can spread fairly
easily given gusty wind conditions. Please use extra care when
participating in activities that may create sparks or embers.
-Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$