Cecilville, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXUS66 KMFR 122350
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
450 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...An active storm track will remain over the area
through at least early next week. A front  is moving through
today, followed by an upper trough and showery pattern tonight
and Thursday. Another frontal system moves into the area Friday.
This is followed by a moist, atmospheric river system late Saturday
into Sunday. Each of these systems is expected to bring snow and
wind impacts to portions of the area. Additionally, river levels
are likely to rise, especially for rivers and streams west of the
Cascades, Sunday into Monday as heavy rain moves into western
portions of the area.

Key Messages:

* Heaviest snow impacts today through early Thursday in the
  western Siskiyou County mountains and Mount Shasta area, with
  snow levels lowering from near 4500 feet today down to 2000
  feet tonight.

* Late tonight and early Thursday, light to moderate snow showers
  possible down to 2000 feet elevation in the foothills of the
  Cascades and Ashland area in Jackson County.

* Moderate to heavy snow likely in the mountains, especially for
  the Southern Oregon Cascades and across western and southern
  Siskiyou as another front moves into the area Friday.

* An atmospheric river will bring rain and strong winds to the
  area this weekend with heavy rain likely for the coast/coastal
  mountains and areas west of the Cascades. Heavy snow is possible
  in the  mountains and higher terrain from the Cascades east and
  for mountains in Siskiyou County.

Today into tonight, as a front moves across the area followed by
an upper trough moving inland late tonight and Thursday. This will
bring a mix of rain and snow to the area. Gusty winds are also
likely in the Shasta Valley through this afternoon and for areas
from the Cascades eastward through this evening. Moderate to heavy
snow will continue today into tonight in the mountains,
especially the Cascades, higher portions of the Siskiyous and
into mountains/higher terrain in western and southern Siskiyou
County. Snow levels will lower with the frontal passage from near
4000 feet this afternoon down to 2000 feet late tonight and early
Thursday. This combined with showers will bring some lower
elevation snow impacts late tonight and thursday morning, mainly
to the Mount Shasta City area and for the foothills in Jackson
County. Models show a band of showers moving through in the late
night and early morning across these areas as the upper trough
axis pushes inland. We have issued a winter weather advisory for
Jackson County for these condition and extended the winter storm
warning for portions of Siskiyou County into Thursday morning.

Models and ensembles support a relative break with decreased
shower activity Thursday afternoon and evening. Then another
frontal system approaches Thursday night and moves into the area
Friday. Snow levels may start out low (down to 1500 feet) as
light precipitation moves inland Thursday night, then snow levels
rise to around 3000-3500 feet during the day Friday as
precipitation increases. Of note, with good upslope flow, snow
levels may stay down to lower valley floors in the Mount Shasta
City area on Friday. We have added a winter storm watch for the
Southern Oregon Cascades, higher portions of the Siskiyou
mountains and for western/southern Siskiyou County  Thursday
night through Friday evening for these conditions. Meanwhile, east
of the Cascades, moderate to locally heavy snow is possible
Friday as this system moves through. Gusty winds are likely at the
coast and over the mountains and east of the Cascades. However,
current models and guidance do no support warning levels at this
time. We will continue to monitor this for additional updates.

As this front lifts northeast, another low moving into the area and
continued onshore westerly flow will bring light to moderate rain
and snow to the area Friday night and Saturday. Then models are
showing an atmospheric river system moving into the area late
Saturday and Sunday. Snow levels are expected to be between
4000-5500 feet. So much of this will fall as heavy to moderate
rain west of the Cascades and a mix of rain and snow from the
Cascades east. Heavy rain of around 3 to 6 inches along the coast
and into the coastal mountains and 2 to 4 inches inland across
Douglas, Josephine and Western Siskiyou Counties, combined with
snow melt, will allow significant rises on rivers and streams.
Current forecasts keep mainstem rivers below flood. However, we
will continue to monitor and update for this event. Models support
a potential for strong, gusty winds as this system moves inland,
initially along the coast and over the mountains Saturday night
into Sunday morning, then east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon
and evening. Guidance and The Shasta Valley will also see a chance
for strong winds (gusts to 65 mph) Saturday night and Sunday.
Higher mountains and terrain east of the Cascades, is expected to
see moderate to heavy snow during this event, with heaviest
amounts above 4500 feet elevation.

&&

.AVIATION...13/00Z TAFs...Widespread rain showers continue over
most parts of northern California and southern Oregon, while snow
showers are possible over higher terrain, especially the Cascades
and Mount Shasta. Ceilings are staying at VFR/MVFR levels, while
showers are occasionally bringing MVFR visibilities. Lower flight
levels are possible under heavier showers and at higher elevations.
Gusty winds continue over the Mount Shasta area and east of the
Cascades, but winds should improve through the TAF period.

Snow levels remain at 3500-4000 feet to start the TAF period but
will drop to 2000-2500 feet by early Thursday morning. This will
make snow showers possible over coastal ranges south of Cape Blanco,
while snow showers will continue over other elevated terrain. Light
snow showers are possible over valley and basin floors. For Medford
and Roseburg, accumulation is not expected. Klamath Falls may see an
inch of snowfall spread through the TAF period, and may see
occasional IFR or LIFR levels if a snow shower passes over the
airport. -TAD


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, March 12, 2025...Moderate
southwest winds will continue into early this evening with winds
shifting northwest later this evening and tonight. While winds will
remain below Small Craft, seas will remain elevated enough for Small
Craft conditions to continue through Thursday evening.

There`s good agreement a strong warm front will approach the waters
Thursday night with south winds increasing and reaching Gales.
Models show 925 mb winds around 50 kts later Thursday night into
early Friday morning, which typically will result in gale force
winds near and at the surface. Also, the window of opportunity for
gales is about 9 hours, before winds shift southwest and diminish
shortly after daybreak Friday morning. Following the gale watch,
it`s becoming more likely we`ll have Hazardous Seas Warning
conditions that could last until the next strong front approaches
the waters late Saturday afternoon or evening. There are some
indications there could be a brief break of about 6 hours where seas
could diminish below Hazardous Seas Warning conditions, but
confidence on this is not high as the timing of each of these strong
systems could vary. Due to the above reasoning. A Gale Watch has
been issued following the current Small Craft Advisory, followed by
a Hazardous Seas Watch late Friday morning into early Saturday
morning. Please see MWWMFR for more details.

There`s good agreement among the models that we could have another
round of strong winds Saturday evening and night with gale force
winds possible. -Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
     for ORZ027-028.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ026>028
     -030-031.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ080-082-
     083.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
     for CAZ080-082-083.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$